Do cows fly?

A friend tells us that cows fly. We decide to settle it with a p-value, so first the claim has to say how much they fly: a cow that flew for no time at all would be no different from a cow that does not fly. Our friend says every cow spends some hours a day in the air, and the farm we are going to has a certain number of cows.

If that is true, then at the moment we look over the gate each cow is airborne with probability hours / 24, and the number of cows we should catch in the air follows a binomial distribution.

We go to a farm, we look, and every cow is on the ground — which is what every visit to every farm finds. So what changes from one experiment to the next is not the result but the farm: each one is picked at random, up to the size set below, and the same empty sky means something very different over a herd of nine and a herd of ninety. So the plot is over the farms themselves: one bar for every farm we might walk into, and its height is the p-value of finding every cow in it on the ground. The cutoff is the line across them, and the red bars are the farms big enough to reject the claim.

The hypothesis

The rule for rejecting it

The experiment